2/11/2020

6:56 PM

Kris Bryant is entering the third year of arbitration and has been shopped around the league for most if not the whole offseason. So, one begs the question, Why in the hell are the Cubbies entertaining trading the former Most Valuable Player? Well for starters I can see the Cubbies not wanting to get into the same situation that my Sox just encountered with Mookie Betts, it’s been reported that multiple contract extensions have been offered Bryant’s way for the better part of the last two years the largest sitting around 250 mill. Bryant tried to fight for his service time when he was held out the first month of his rookie season of 2015 but lost so now, he won’t be free agent eligible until after the 2021 season. The Cubbies, however, find themselves in a unique situation with Bryant two years away from free agency, Anthony Rizzo is up after the 2021 season, Javier Baez is up after 2021, Kyle Schwarber up after 2021, and Wilson Contreras is up after 2022. Not all of these guys can get paid and their farm system has grown thin since all of there kids are up on the big club now.

The Cubs need to pick which of these guys are going to get paid and who’s contracts will be the most reasonable to keep as many of these guys as possible. Enter the question above: “Why in the hell are the Cubbies entertaining trading the former Most Valuable Player?” Bryant being a top-five guy lets say, and at a thin position being third base he’s going to cost the most money and if the Cubbies feel that trading Bryant will help the organization keep most of the above guys and can reload the farm you have to entertain it.

Back to the Cubbies not wanting a Mookie Betts situation, now the difference between Betts and Bryant’s situation is well years of control, Betts is free agent eligible after this upcoming season, whoever would attempt to trade for Bryant would get this year and next year so his value would be significantly higher. Now I’m not going to put Bryant in the same class as Betts, but Bryant is still a top seven 3B in the game today especially at a thin position. If we take a look at the AAV of all the 3rd basemen in baseball Bryant sits seventh behind Rendon, Arenado, Machado, Donaldson, Bregman, and Carpenter. One can argue that Bryant is better than Carpenter, and when healthy he provides more upside than Donaldson, as far as an argument for Bregman Bryant can play the outfield and first base which would raise his value over Bregman(we also have no idea how skewed his stats are due to the sign-stealing). That would leapfrog him into the top four if we take a look at the AAV’s from the top three guys(Rendon, Arenado, and Machado) the average AAV is 32.5 mill if the 250 mill extension is accurate the only appropriate years the contract could have been to get the AAV close to the 32.5 AAV is 8/250 and that would only get it to 31.25 mill. Now Bryant recovered nicely last season after an injury-plagued 2018 however Bryant faltered in the second half of the season hitting a pedestrian .261.

So realistically where would a landing spot for Bryant look like if he is moved? For starters, it would probably be a team in a win-now window, and one that could absorb his 18.6 mill cap hit for this season. So off the bat, it’s been reported that the Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals have had a dialogue about Bryant, three other clubs I want to throw into this would be the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers.

The Rocks have Nolan Arenado why in the hell would you try and flip flop them? So that’s a reach for me, the most intriguing between the Phills and Nats are the Phills. Childhood friend Bryce Harper is there, and the Cubbies were linked to Harper when he was a free agent due strictly to the relationship, he had with Bryant. A lineup featuring both Bryant and Harper in addition to the Unicorn (J.T. Realmuto) Rhys Hoskins would put them as the favorite to win the NL East and meet the NL Pennant favorite LA Dodgers.

The Nats make sense especially since they lost Rendon to the Halos this offseason, if they can pair Tre Turner, Juan Soto, and Kris Bryant for the next two years with the pitching that is already on the team for minimum the next two seasons, they become a force that the Phills and Braves have to deal with.

On the flip side of that, if the Braves can acquire the former MVP, they’re in a great position to extend Bryant and keep a core together of Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Bryant, and budding start Austin Riley. That would be the second-best lineup in the NL for a long time.

Texas makes for an interesting landing spot, just moved into a brand new stadium and they whiffed on Rendon and The Bringer of Rain so why not go get a Kris Bryant and have an above-average three-four combo in the lineup with Bryant and Joey Gallo? Both are major run producers and would make that team an attractive destination for other free agents, say a George Springer this coming offseason or other players of the caliber.

The fact of the matter in the Cubbies are in a no-win situation with Bryant, if they pay him, they’ll probably lose two of the guys I mentioned above the one likely being Baez who would price himself out of the Windy City. The Cubbies though can save their situation by getting a pretty good haul for Bryant.

Final Take:
If the Cubs want to save this situation you have to consider moving Bryant during Spring Training to ensure to get a good return, they would most likely be punting on 2020 but it would put them in a situation to push both the Beermakers and the Red Birds for the NL Central Crown. If they can’t get the return they want before the year started you see how the first half goes, if they find themselves in the hunt you almost have to keep him, if they’re on the outside looking in I can see him being moved at the deadline and that would invite more teams to be interested in the former number two overall pick, look is trading Bryant as bad as trading Mookie Betts? Fuck No, but it’s up there when Bryant’s going well, he’s a legitimate difference maker and can carry an offense by himself for stretches at a time. Ultimately, I see him being moved at the deadline and the Cubbies get a head start at there 2020 offseason by trying to lock up Baez and Contreras to long term deals and stay relevant for a long time.